S-curve launch modelling (RM-006)¶
Use Compare → What-if scenario → Launch S-curve for new products or markets with little or no sales history (cold-start series flagged in the run).
Parameters¶
| Field | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Addressable market | Total units you expect the market to absorb over the launch horizon |
| Inflection month | Month (from launch start) where adoption accelerates fastest |
| Growth rate (k) | Steepness of the logistic curve — higher = faster take-off |
| From / To month | Forecast months to overlay the S-curve |
The model uses a Rogers diffusion logistic curve: cumulative adopters grow as
M / (1 + e^(-k(t - t₀))), and monthly demand is the month-on-month increase in
cumulative adoption.
When to use it¶
- New SKU with < 12 months of history (DI-011 cold-start)
- New geography or channel with no direct analogue
- S&OP planning workshops where a structured assumption beats a flat guess
Uncertainty bands are heuristic (±25% around the median) because there is no history to calibrate intervals.
Tier¶
Growth plan and above (s_curve_launch feature).